Industry Analysis – NISM Series XV Research Analyst Short Notes (Part 6)
This is Part 6 of the NISM Research Analyst Short Notes series on PassNISM.in. Industry analysis is the second layer of the Economy-Industry-Company (EIC) framework used in fundamental research. After understanding the macro economy, the analyst must understand how each industry is positioned within that environment.
This chapter is tested heavily in the NISM Series XV exam — especially Porter's Five Forces, PESTLE, BCG Matrix, and business life cycle concepts.
Role of Industry Analysis in Fundamental Research
While economic analysis tells us whether business conditions in general are favourable or unfavourable, industry analysis drills deeper to answer:
- Which industries will benefit most from current economic conditions?
- How does competitive dynamics within the industry affect company profitability?
- What structural forces are shaping the future of this industry?
Industry analysis also helps analysts understand how players within a market are likely to react to changes, and how those reactions affect the industry's overall prospects.
Defining the Industry
The first step in any industry analysis is clearly defining the industry in which the target company operates. This is not always straightforward — a company may operate across multiple segments, or the boundary between adjacent industries may be blurry.
Standard classification systems used include:
- National Industry Classification (NIC) — India's standard industrial classification
- North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) — Used in the US
However, these formal classifications may not always capture the competitive substance of an industry. Analysts must use judgment to define the relevant competitive space.
Understanding Industry Cyclicality
Economic cycles affect all businesses, but some are more sensitive than others. Based on how they respond to economic cycles, industries are classified into three types:
1. Defensive Industries
These industries are relatively unaffected by economic cycles. Demand for their products and services remains stable regardless of the economy. Examples: pharmaceuticals, FMCG (food, detergents), utilities. These businesses are often called non-cyclical.
2. Semi-Cyclical Industries
These industries are somewhat affected by economic cycles but not as dramatically as deep cyclical industries. Examples: consumer durables, automobiles (entry-level segment).
3. Deep Cyclical Industries
These industries are highly sensitive to economic cycles. Their revenues and profitability rise sharply in expansions and fall sharply in recessions. Examples: steel, cement, capital goods, commodities, real estate. These industries have high operating leverage.
Market Sizing and Trend Analysis
Understanding the size of a market and its growth trajectory is critical for investment analysis. Industries that are underpenetrated have more headroom to grow. As industries mature, growth rates slow.
Top-Down Market Sizing
Start from macro data (total population, GDP, per capita income) and narrow down to arrive at the industry size. Useful when broad estimates are sufficient.
Bottom-Up Market Sizing
Aggregate data from individual companies and their revenues to arrive at the total industry size. More precise but requires granular data.
Secular Trends, Value Migration, and Business Life Cycle Secular Trends in Industry Context
Secular trends cause long-term structural shifts in industries — some industries thrive while others decline permanently. Key drivers:
- Technological disruption
- Rising income levels leading to premiumisation
- Demographic changes (ageing population, urbanisation)
- Changing consumer preferences and culture
- Regulatory changes (GST, environmental norms, labour laws)
Value Migration
Value migration is the shift of economic value (and therefore investor wealth creation) from one entity or group to another due to a structural change. The entity that gains sees shareholder value rise; the one that loses sees shareholder value decline.
There are four types of value migration:
a) Geographic Migration
Value shifts from companies in one geography to those in another. Example: The discovery of shale gas in the United States shifted value from traditional OPEC oil producers to US-based shale companies.
b) Cross-Industry Migration
Value shifts from one industry to another. Example: The rise of digital photography caused Kodak and the film rolls industry to collapse while camera sensor manufacturers thrived.
c) Migration Across the Value Chain
Value shifts between the upstream and downstream segments of the same industry. Example: Intense telecom competition in India caused revenue to shift from telecom companies (upstream) to internet content providers (downstream).
d) Migration Across Companies in the Same Industry
A disruption may create competitive advantage for one company while eroding it for another within the same sector. Example: A technology-superior bank gaining customers from its less-innovative competitor.
Business Life Cycle
Every industry passes through a predictable life cycle with five broad stages:
- Pioneering Stage — The industry is new. High uncertainty, few players, high failure rate, but massive growth potential for survivors.
- Growth Stage — Rapid revenue and profit growth. Many new players enter. Customers adopt the product/service widely.
- Maturity Stage — Growth slows. Market is saturated. Competition is intense. Profitability stabilises or begins to decline.
- Declining Stage — Industry shrinks. Technological disruption or changing preferences reduce demand. Players exit or consolidate.
- Reinvention and Revival Stage — Some industries manage to reinvent themselves through innovation, pivoting, or regulatory support.
Michael Porter's Five Forces Model
Developed by Dr. Michael Porter in 1979, the Five Forces Model is the most widely used framework for analysing the attractiveness and competitive intensity of an industry. The five forces are:
1. Industry Rivalry (Competitive Intensity)
The degree of competition among existing players in the industry. High rivalry compresses margins and limits pricing power. Key factors: number of competitors, market share concentration, rate of industry growth, product differentiation.
2. Threat of New Entrants
The ease with which new competitors can enter the industry. Low barriers to entry (low capital requirements, no regulatory protection, no brand advantage) mean a constant threat of new competition, which keeps margins low.
3. Threat of Substitutes
The availability of alternative products or services that can fulfill the same need. High substitution risk caps the pricing power of existing players. Example: Video streaming services are substitutes for traditional cable TV.
4. Bargaining Power of Suppliers
The ability of suppliers to dictate terms. Powerful suppliers can raise input costs, squeezing industry margins. High when there are few alternative suppliers or when the input is unique and critical.
5. Bargaining Power of Buyers
The ability of customers to negotiate lower prices. High when buyers are few and large, when products are undifferentiated, or when switching costs are low.
Exam Tip: An industry with weak competitive forces (low rivalry, high entry barriers, few substitutes, low buyer and supplier power) generates high and sustainable profits — making it an attractive investment sector.
PESTLE Analysis
PESTLE is a framework for analysing the external environment of an industry across six dimensions:
| Factor | What It Covers |
|---|---|
| Political | Government stability, political structure, approach to social programmes, freedom of press |
| Economic | GDP growth, inflation, income distribution, interest rates, consumption patterns |
| Socio-cultural | Demographics, lifestyle, preferences, cultural norms |
| Technological | Availability and cost of technology, R&D intensity, rate of technological change |
| Legal | Legal architecture, efficiency of courts, tax systems, labour laws |
| Environmental | Pollution norms, environmental awareness, conservation requirements, climate risks |
BCG Matrix (Boston Consulting Group Analysis)
The BCG Matrix classifies a company's business segments based on market growth rate and relative market share:
| Quadrant | Growth Rate | Market Share | Characteristic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stars | High | High | Rapid growth + dominant position; requires heavy investment to sustain |
| Cash Cows | Low | High | Mature market, dominant player; generates steady cash with low reinvestment needs |
| Question Marks | High | Low | Fast-growing market, but small player; needs investment to become a Star or exit |
| Dogs | Low | Low | Slow growth, weak competitive position; often a candidate for divestment |
Structure-Conduct-Performance (SCP) Analysis
The SCP framework analyses an industry across three linked dimensions:
Structure Analysis
Examines the competitive intensity of the industry — number of players, concentration of business, market size and growth rate, relationships among industry participants. Similar to Porter's Five Forces.
Conduct Analysis
Studies how companies behave within the industry — pricing strategies, product innovation, marketing, and competitive tactics. Each industry has unique behavioural patterns.
Performance Analysis
Evaluates financial outcomes generated by companies in the industry. Businesses with high return on capital are the ones that create sustainable shareholder wealth over the long run.
Key Industry Drivers — Sectors Commonly Covered
The NISM Research Analyst syllabus highlights specific sector knowledge as important. Key industries a research analyst covers include:
- Telecom
- IT / BPO / KPO
- Banking, NBFCs, and Housing Finance
- Media
- Retail
- Airlines and Transportation/Logistics
- Automobiles and Capital Goods
- Consumer Goods (FMCG)
Each sector has unique performance metrics. For example: Banking uses NIM (Net Interest Margin); Retail uses same-store sales growth; Aviation uses passenger load factor.
Taxation — Direct and Indirect Taxes
Tax changes can significantly affect industry profitability, which is why research analysts must understand the tax environment.
Direct Taxes
Taxes where the person who bears the tax is also the person who pays it. Corporate direct taxes in India have four components:
- Income Tax
- Minimum Alternate Tax (MAT)
- Surcharge
- Health and Education Cess
Indirect Taxes
Taxes where the person bearing the tax (consumer) is different from the person paying it to the government (seller). Key indirect taxes in India:
- GST (Goods and Services Tax) — Replaced multiple taxes; most goods and services are now under GST
- Excise Duty — Still applies to petroleum products and alcohol (outside GST)
- Value Added Tax (VAT) — Applicable to items outside GST
- Customs Duty — On imports into India
Other taxes: Road tax, Stamp duty, Securities Transaction Tax (STT)
Quick Revision Points — Industry Analysis
- Industry analysis is the second step in EIC framework (after economy)
- Three cyclicality categories: Defensive, Semi-cyclical, Deep cyclical
- Value migration: geographic, cross-industry, value chain, within-industry
- Business life cycle stages: Pioneering → Growth → Maturity → Decline → Reinvention
- Porter's Five Forces: Rivalry, New Entrants, Substitutes, Supplier Power, Buyer Power
- BCG Matrix: Stars (high-high), Cash Cows (low-high), Question Marks (high-low), Dogs (low-low)
- PESTLE covers Political, Economic, Socio-cultural, Technological, Legal, Environmental factors
- SCP: Structure → Conduct → Performance
- GST replaced most indirect taxes except petroleum, alcohol, and customs duty
- High return on capital = sustainable wealth creation for shareholders
Next in the Series
Part 7 of our NISM Research Analyst Short Notes covers Company Analysis: Business and Governance — including business models, pricing power, competitive advantages, SWOT analysis, corporate governance, promoter holdings, credit ratings, and ESG framework.
Access free NISM Research Analyst practice tests at Research Analyst Free Mock Test.